Jan.20 (GMM) Fernando Alonso has emerged as an unlikely early favourite for the 2026 Formula 1 world championship, with a growing number of paddock voices pointing to experience – and Mercedes power – as decisive factors under the new rules.
Former grand prix winner Heinz-Harald Frentzen raised eyebrows a few days ago when he named Alonso as his pick for 2026. Now, even Dr Helmut Marko – recently ousted from Red Bull – has broadly echoed that thinking, while stopping short of ruling out Max Verstappen.
“This will be a huge advantage for Max, because he can drive incredibly fast and think at the same time,” Marko told ORF. “But a veteran like Fernando Alonso could also have an advantage there. The driver will now be even more important.”
Marko believes the complexity of the 2026 regulations – with greater emphasis on energy management, software and decision-making – will amplify the role of the driver, rather than diminish it.
Still, when it comes to hardware, the Austrian sees a familiar pattern forming.
“I fear it will be a driver with a Mercedes engine,” Marko said. “It could be Lando Norris again. Williams is also making considerable progress, from what I hear.
“If George Russell wants to be at the top, he needs to put that into practice now and fight for the world championship.”
Former driver Alexander Wurz, chairman of the GPDA, shares the expectation that Mercedes will start the new era strongly.
“Word in the paddock is that Mercedes started the process early, and they have the most resources,” Wurz said. “It’s possible they’ll have an advantage.
“But things are very quiet in the Honda camp, which is usually a sign that the Japanese engine makers are happy. I’m curious to see how Adrian Newey handles his duties at Aston Martin.”
That curiosity is intensifying around Aston Martin. Persistent rumours from inside the team suggest an all-out push behind the scenes, with staff working extended hours since November and the AMR26 described internally as ‘radical’ in several key areas beyond aerodynamics.
Marko understands why Aston Martin is willing to endure short-term pain by switching from Mercedes engines to Honda in 2026.
“They hope that Honda will perform similarly to how it did for us in our world championship years,” he said, referring to Red Bull’s dominant run earlier in the decade.
Yet even Marko ultimately circles back to Mercedes as the benchmark, having heard credible rumours.
“Our world is quite small,” he added. “The AVL test benches are used by several teams. Everything comes together around Milton Keynes and Oxford. Mercedes is already a certain favourite due to its history and engine expertise.”